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Why Are 40% More Hoosiers Dying?


An astonishing article came out stating the death rate is up 40% from pre-pandemic levels among working-age people--and it's not all COVID. Scott Davison, CEO of life insurance company OneAmerica, says, 

“We are seeing, right now, the highest death rates we have seen in the history of this business – not just at OneAmerica... The data is consistent across every player in that business.”

...the increase in deaths represents “huge, huge numbers,” and ... it’s not elderly people who are dying, but “primarily working-age people 18 to 64” who are the employees of companies that have group life insurance plans through OneAmerica.

“And what we saw just in third quarter, we’re seeing it continue into fourth quarter, is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic,” he said.

“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.”

OneAmerica is a real company, not a group of wing-nuts: I worked across the street from them downtown when I first moved to Indianapolis. They have their own building. It's a "$100 billion insurance company that has had its headquarters in Indianapolis since 1877. The company has approximately 2,400 employees and sells life insurance, including group life insurance to employers in the state," the article says. 

It looks like they're right. The CDC shows a spike in deaths among people age 45-64 years in late summer through late fall--the third and fourth quarters of the fiscal year they mentioned (assuming they have a December year end). Click images to enlarge.

Excess deaths in Indiana based on six years' data. Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm Note that delays in reporting can range from 1 to 8 weeks or more.

The United States as a whole shows the same trend:


Some people are attributing the excess deaths to COVID vaccinations. I don't know if that's the cause, so let's look at Indiana's vaccinations by date. (I'm sure there's a similar chart for the US out there, but I can't find one.)

Source: https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/vaccine/vaccine-dashboard/

There was a peak in vaccinations starting in January, while the peak in deaths started happening at week 28, or mid-July. However, it wasn't until March 3 that Hoosiers 50 and over were eligible to get the shot, and March 22 when 40-year-olds could get it. Is it more common to die of the COVID vaccine months down the road than immediately? I have no idea. If it is, we're likely to see another smaller wave of deaths start soon.

According to the CDC chart above, around 230 age 45-64 die every week in a normal year. If the deaths were 40% above normal, that means 322 were dying every week, which compares with the CDC chart. That equals 92 excess deaths per week (322-230).

Ninety-two excess deaths per week over two quarters (26 weeks) equals 2,392 excess deaths. Some, but not all, were COVID deaths according to OneAmerica. People age 40-60 account for 10% of deaths according to Indiana's coronavirus dashboard, while those in their 60s account for 17%, so let's say the 45-64 age group accounts for 12% of COVID deaths. Also from the dashboard, it looks like the late summer/fall wave of 2021 accounts for about a third of all COVID deaths, or around 6,144. If we estimate that Hoosiers age 45-64 account for 12% of COVID deaths, that's 737 deaths among them during that wave. Subtracting that from 2,392, I estimate that 1,655 excess deaths were other than COVID. 

To date, there are 613,711 vaccinated Hoosiers age 45-64. About half of us that age are vaccinated. If the excess deaths were due to vaccine injuries, that would mean one out of every 742 Hoosiers age 45-64 who got a COVID shot had a fatal adverse event. Let's call it 1 out of 750. Is that realistic? I don't know, but it's in line with an estimate by researchers Jessica Rose, Steve Kirsch, and Matthew Crawford. 

Other potential causes of excess deaths? It's no secret there's an opioid problem in the Rust Belt. Surely some of the deaths were overdoses, but OneAmerica surely would have mentioned it if it was a major cause of death. Besides, it's not something that started this year. Other deaths of despair? Things have been pretty much back to normal for several months here and there's plenty of work available. Murders? They're up, but not by thousands and generally not against middle-aged people. 

I am not sure what to make of it; remember that correlation isn't causation. But I do know that once again, as we were ten years ago with diabetes and still are with thyroid problems, we are on our own.

Photo of La Porte, Indiana by Chris Wright via Wikimedia Commons. 

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Galina l. said…
Wow! I have to share that!
January 06, 2022
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