COVID19 Antibody Study Results from Stanford

Stanford University did a COVID-19 antibody study in Santa Clara County, California April 3-4. From the pre-print write-up:

Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.

At this date, there have been 69 deaths from COVID19 in Santa Clara County. That puts the mortality rate at .09% to .14%.

Of course, mortality rates may be higher elsewhere. Santa Clara County residents are mostly college educated, high earners, according to the Census. There aren't many black people--a group that's been hit especially hard. And for whatever reason, California has seen few cases compared to most of the US. But the mortality rate seen here is comparable to the regular flu.

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