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Breakthroughs are Over One-Third of Cases & Deaths in Indiana

The magic is wearing off. Today, the Broadway musical Aladdin was canceled after "unnamed members in the musical’s cast and/or crew tested positive for COVID-19." The New York Post article doesn't say whether these were breakthrough cases, but considering they're theater people in New York City, they were surely all vaccinated. New York City also requires a vaccine pass just to go to a theater. It's more of those "rare breakthrough cases" we're now hearing about every day.

I predicted about a month ago that cases would be traced to Broadway shows, but I thought it would be audience members from out of town getting COVID. New Yorkers have surely all had it or been exposed to it, giving them superior immunity, but maybe the cast or crew members who caught COVID rode out the city's wave on the West Coast or in the country. 

A month ago I also started keeping track of breakthrough cases here in Indiana. Indiana's vaccine dashboard presents the data to make breakthroughs seem rare by looking at breakthroughs as a percent of all vaccinated people. Public health agencies are all over absolute risk when it suits them. But by using data from the COVID, vaccine and Regenstreif (hospital) state dashboards, I've calculated the portion of breakthroughs as a percent of cases, hospitalizations and deaths. In just over a month, positive cases that are breakthroughs have almost tripled and breakthrough deaths as a portion of all COVID deaths have increased five-fold. Breakthrough hospitalizations have been hovering around 4-5%. It's not because of increasing vaccinations--vaccinations have barely budged. Click the table to enlarge image.


Hospitalizations in the UK, where they're a few months ahead of us, saw 40% vaccinated patients. They've also seeing a concerning rise in heart-related deaths, but the cause is unclear. In Israel, 60% of hospital patients were vaccinated in August. (Both countries had a much higher portion of the population vaccinated.) I suspect the vast difference in hospitalization rates between Indiana and these countries is at least partly because of the healthy user effect. Unvaccinated people in the US tend to be less educated and minority groups are overrepresented. Overall, the unvaccinated are probably less healthy to begin with and more prone to a bad case of COVID. 

The good news, though, is that cases, hospitalizations and deaths have been going down for weeks, even as the vaccines are wearing off. All of this indicates we don't need to get everyone vaccinated:

  • Cases & hospitalizations spiked during mass vaccination.
  • Cases & hospitalizations are dropping with vaccines wearing off. 
  • Breakthrough infections are almost as common as regular infections.

I'm not saying vaccines caused the wave--it could be that the vaccinations were happening at the same time the highly contagious delta wave hit. Other places like India had a delta wave that lasted a few months--and the delta wave there subsided with only a small portion of the population vaccinated. The US saw cases and deaths fall off a cliff in January--the middle of winter and before vaccines had a chance to affect anything. Vaccinations don't seem to affect spread. 

What can people do to avoid a bad case of COVID?

  • Beware if you're older. The average age of breakthrough deaths in Indiana is about 80; most of the hospital patients in Israel are 60 or over.
  • Reduce your risk factors like high blood sugar and excess weight. This will also help protect you from diabetes and heart disease.
  • Normalize your vitamin D level. 
  • Avoid indoor crowds. 
  • Get monoclonal antibodies if you have a mild to moderate case. Early treatment is best--don't let it turn into a severe case!
  • If you're at high risk, vaccination may be a good idea, but consider that the vaccines are still experimental and thousands of people have reported death or serious side effects, and many adverse events are not being reported to VAERS.

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