Skip to main content

Breakthroughs are Over One-Third of Cases & Deaths in Indiana

The magic is wearing off. Today, the Broadway musical Aladdin was canceled after "unnamed members in the musical’s cast and/or crew tested positive for COVID-19." The New York Post article doesn't say whether these were breakthrough cases, but considering they're theater people in New York City, they were surely all vaccinated. New York City also requires a vaccine pass just to go to a theater. It's more of those "rare breakthrough cases" we're now hearing about every day.

I predicted about a month ago that cases would be traced to Broadway shows, but I thought it would be audience members from out of town getting COVID. New Yorkers have surely all had it or been exposed to it, giving them superior immunity, but maybe the cast or crew members who caught COVID rode out the city's wave on the West Coast or in the country. 

A month ago I also started keeping track of breakthrough cases here in Indiana. Indiana's vaccine dashboard presents the data to make breakthroughs seem rare by looking at breakthroughs as a percent of all vaccinated people. Public health agencies are all over absolute risk when it suits them. But by using data from the COVID, vaccine and Regenstreif (hospital) state dashboards, I've calculated the portion of breakthroughs as a percent of cases, hospitalizations and deaths. In just over a month, positive cases that are breakthroughs have almost tripled and breakthrough deaths as a portion of all COVID deaths have increased five-fold. Breakthrough hospitalizations have been hovering around 4-5%. It's not because of increasing vaccinations--vaccinations have barely budged. Click the table to enlarge image.


Hospitalizations in the UK, where they're a few months ahead of us, saw 40% vaccinated patients. They've also seeing a concerning rise in heart-related deaths, but the cause is unclear. In Israel, 60% of hospital patients were vaccinated in August. (Both countries had a much higher portion of the population vaccinated.) I suspect the vast difference in hospitalization rates between Indiana and these countries is at least partly because of the healthy user effect. Unvaccinated people in the US tend to be less educated and minority groups are overrepresented. Overall, the unvaccinated are probably less healthy to begin with and more prone to a bad case of COVID. 

The good news, though, is that cases, hospitalizations and deaths have been going down for weeks, even as the vaccines are wearing off. All of this indicates we don't need to get everyone vaccinated:

  • Cases & hospitalizations spiked during mass vaccination.
  • Cases & hospitalizations are dropping with vaccines wearing off. 
  • Breakthrough infections are almost as common as regular infections.

I'm not saying vaccines caused the wave--it could be that the vaccinations were happening at the same time the highly contagious delta wave hit. Other places like India had a delta wave that lasted a few months--and the delta wave there subsided with only a small portion of the population vaccinated. The US saw cases and deaths fall off a cliff in January--the middle of winter and before vaccines had a chance to affect anything. Vaccinations don't seem to affect spread. 

What can people do to avoid a bad case of COVID?

  • Beware if you're older. The average age of breakthrough deaths in Indiana is about 80; most of the hospital patients in Israel are 60 or over.
  • Reduce your risk factors like high blood sugar and excess weight. This will also help protect you from diabetes and heart disease.
  • Normalize your vitamin D level. 
  • Avoid indoor crowds. 
  • Get monoclonal antibodies if you have a mild to moderate case. Early treatment is best--don't let it turn into a severe case!
  • If you're at high risk, vaccination may be a good idea, but consider that the vaccines are still experimental and thousands of people have reported death or serious side effects, and many adverse events are not being reported to VAERS.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Dana Carpender's Podcast; Dr. Davis on YouTube; Labor Day Sales

Dana Carpender, who's written several recipe books and other works on low-carb, has a podcast and is still writing articles at carbsmart.com. She's a terrific writer and amateur researcher (otherwise known as reading , as Jimmy Dore jokes ). I use her book 500 Low-Carb Recipes all the time and I'm looking forward to hearing more from her. I've embedded her podcast on my blog (click on the three lines at the top right if you don't see it, or go to Spotify or other podcast source if you're getting this by email). Carbsmart.com doesn't seem to have a blog feed, so if you want to see the latest posts there, you can sign up for notifications at their site. Dr. Davis has been putting a lot more videos on YouTube, so I've added his channel to the lineup. Click on the three lines on my blog if you don't see it, or go to his channel here .  * * * * * Primal Kitchen is having a Labor Day sale-- 20% off everything. They sell high quality collagen powder, con...

Fermented bread and butter pickle recipe ft. L. Plantarum

After Dr. Davis said the other night that  L. plantarum  may reduce some of the effects of the herbicide glyphosate (which is everywhere), I'm re-running my recipe for fermented bread and butter pickles. Pickling cucumbers naturally have  L. plantarum  bacteria on them, and fermenting them with some brown sugar multiplies these bacteria. (Just don't use chlorinated water to wash them.) And if you're growing your own cucumbers, avoid spraying the fruits with  Bacillus thuringiensis , or Bt (leaves and vines are OK). It's unclear what effect a big dose of Bt would have on humans. Another benefit of DIY pickles: no emulsifiers like polysorbate 80, which is a common ingredient in pickles. If you have GI problems, it could be from emulsifiers. These sweet-and-sour pickles are the tastiest I've ever made. There's just a little added sugar (some of which the bacteria will consume) and turmeric that gives the pickles their bright color.  Special equipment Quar...

Collagen-filled Low Carb Burritos

Low-carb, grain-free Mexican food is hard to find, but it's easy to make your own at home. This recipe has an authentic ingredient: carne de lengua, or beef tongue. Don't be put off: beef tongue is tender, delicious, and full of collagen. Look for it directly from farmers in your area. To cook it, cut it in 1" to 1-1/2" slices and pressure cook for one hour. Enjoy the delicious broth as a bonus. Ingredients 1 slice cooked beef tongue, peeled and cut into small cubes 1 egg wrap (I use these  from Egglife) 1/4 cup cooked black or pinto beans Chili pepper Oregano Garlic (powdered or minced) Cumin Guacamole (with no emulsifiers) Salsa Shredded cheddar cheese Sour cream or homemade cream cheese  with no emulsifiers  Put the egg wrap on a plate and put the beef and beans down the middle of it. Sprinkle with the herbs and spices. Wrap, turn over and microwave for 1-2 minutes. Spoon salsa over the burrito and sprinkle with cheese. Add guacamole and sour cream or homemade crea...

15% Off Starter Culture

Starter culture for the wonderful cream cheese I made is 15% off for the next two weeks (through June 18, 2025). The shop (BacillusBulgaricus.com) also offers rennet and starter for other cheeses, yogurt, kefir, kombucha, sour cream, fermented vegetables, and more. They ship to 118 countries across six continents. The coupon code is LORI_sekd3tkb at bacillusbulgaricus.com .  Photo from Pexels .

Cardio: A Waste of Valuable Dance Time

"I'd rather hold a girl in my arms than a football." -Joe DeCicco, friend and dancing fanatic Have you heard that it takes a woman 77 hours of exercise to lose a kilogram of fat? (For us Americans, that's half a pound.) That's according to a study cited by Dr. John Briffa .(1) The women who huffed and puffed three hours a week for a year ended up 4.4 pounds lighter than the sedentary women. That doesn't surprise me: my own weight loss involved a lot less exercise than what I'd been doing. I did no cardio workouts, just strength training . I had more time and energy for dancing, which is a stress reliever, helps keep me in shape, and it's a ton of fun. It's not expensive to dance (as long as you stay away from the studios). I've found excellent lessons at clubs where the teachers really care about the students getting it. Here in Denver, there are dancing clubs that are run by nonprofit organizations, where the prices are reasonable and...